Economic Forecasting in real time for Economic Counseling: The IMK Economic Indicator
The IMK (Institute for Macroeconomics and Economic Research) Economic Indicator developed by Prof. Dr. Christian Proaño together with the Hans Böckler Foundation identifies the probabilities of an emerging recession within the current or the following two months, respectively its continuation. In this context recession denotes a significant decline in industrial production. The spectrum of possible recessions here ranges from a sharp drop in production of at least 1 % over a period of five months up to a significantly weaker decline of 0,5 % which has to last over 10 months.
The scientific work regarding the methodology used has been published in
Proaño, C. R. und Theobald, T. (2014): Predicting Recessions with a Composite Real-Time Dynamic Probit Model. International Journal of Forecasting30(4), 898-917 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207014000508
The Business Cycle Indicator has been updated and published on a monthly basis by the IMK since January 2012. You can obtain further information on the Business Cycle Indicator which has been co-developed by Prof. Dr. Christian Proaño at http://www.boeckler.de/imk_38710.htm